Technical Report #254

Tradeoffs, Conflict, and Choice: The Double-Mediation Model

Marc Scholten, Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada, Lisboa, Portugal and Steven J. Sherman, Indiana University

Abstract

Most current theories of decision-making propose that conflict increases as the size of the tradeoffs between alternatives increases, because of the greater sacrifices to be incurred in choosing one option. A less conventional view is that conflict increases as tradeoff size decreases, because it becomes more difficult to generate arguments or justifications for the decision. We propose a unified model, the double-mediation model, which combines the effects of sacrifice and argumentation on conflict. Our model characteristically predicts an inverse U-shaped relation between tradeoff size and conflict. Results support this prediction. In addition, when situational factors cause greater emphasis on sacrifice, the relation between tradeoff size and conflict becomes (more) positive. Conversely, when situational factors cause greater emphasis on argumentation, the relation between tradeoff size and conflict becomes (more) negative. These predictions are also tested and supported. Implications for the relations among tradeoffs, conflict, and choice are discussed.

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